{"id":228,"date":"2014-06-05T14:10:42","date_gmt":"2014-06-05T14:10:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/patrioti.al\/?p=228"},"modified":"2014-06-05T14:10:42","modified_gmt":"2014-06-05T14:10:42","slug":"sondazhi-pd-29-maj-ne-opinion-nga-ibsk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/patrioti.al\/en\/sondazhi-pd-29-maj-ne-opinion-nga-ibsk\/","title":{"rendered":"Sondazhi PD: 29-Maj n\u00eb “Opinion” nga IBSK"},"content":{"rendered":"

nga Edi Sara<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

Disa sqarime mbi sondazhin e zhvilluar nga IBSK, shfaqur tek \u201cOpinion\u201d m\u00eb 29 Maj<\/strong><\/p>\n

Hyrje<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Publikimi i nj\u00eb artikulli tek gazeta \u201cTema\u201d sh\u00ebrbeu si prelud p\u00ebr t\u00eb sqaruar publikun shqiptar n\u00eb lidhje me sondazhin i cili u p\u00ebrcoll drejtp\u00ebrdrejt nga studio e \u201cOpinion-it\u201d m\u00eb 29 Maj t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti.<\/p>\n

Pik\u00eb s\u00eb pari, m\u00eb lejoni t\u00eb sqaroj se q\u00ebllimi i k\u00ebtij shkrimi nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00eb merret me polemikat q\u00eb mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb ngjallur nga shifrat e publikuara t\u00eb k\u00ebtij sondazhi, por p\u00ebrkundrazi, t\u00eb sqaroj publikun dhe vet\u00ebm publikun shqiptar, e theksoj (duke m\u00ebnjanuar \u201czhurmuesit mediatik\u201d), n\u00eb lidhje me metodologjin\u00eb si dhe p\u00ebrfundimet e rezultateve duke dh\u00ebn\u00eb dhe nj\u00eb analiz\u00eb t\u00eb shkurt\u00ebr sqaruese mbi k\u00ebto shifra.<\/p>\n

Fillimisht, sondazhi nuk u krijua nga Blendi Fevziu, por nga nj\u00eb institut t\u00ebr\u00ebsisht i pavarur: Instituti Ballkanik i Sondazheve-Kosov\u00eb (IBSK-s\u00eb shpejti me nj\u00eb filial edhe n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri). Z. Fevziu e k\u00ebrkoi k\u00ebt\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb sondazh. Pra porosit\u00ebsi-k\u00ebrkuesi \u00ebsht\u00eb studioja \u201cOpinion\u201d, dhe b\u00ebr\u00eb-dh\u00ebn\u00ebsi IBSK.<\/p>\n

Metodologjia<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Metodologjia e p\u00ebrdorur n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb sondazh, \u00ebsht\u00eb totalisht akademike dhe nuk l\u00eb vend p\u00ebr ndikime t\u00eb nj\u00ebanshme n\u00eb rezultate. N\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet bashk\u00ebpunimit t\u00eb Institutit me website-in Izisurvey.com, ngarkimi i t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave b\u00ebhet elektronikisht.<\/p>\n

Sondazhi u krye n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet tabletave-me sim-card. N\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet programit Izisurvey, intervistuesi p\u00ebrdorte metod\u00ebn RDD (Random Digit Dialing) e cila \u00ebsht\u00eb pjes\u00eb e platform\u00ebs Izisurvey. Metoda RDD b\u00ebn t\u00eb mundur p\u00ebrzgjedhjen e nj\u00eb numri t\u00ebr\u00ebsisht n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb probabilistke, ku pasi intervistuesi vendos nj\u00eb minimum dhe maksimum t\u00eb spektrit t\u00eb num\u00ebratorit q\u00eb do t\u00eb telefonoj\u00eb (psh. nga 0692020000 n\u00eb 0699999999), RDD gjeneron nj\u00eb num\u00ebr pas klikimit t\u00eb butonit \u201cGjenero nj\u00eb num\u00ebr t\u00eb ri\u201d duke i dh\u00ebn\u00eb shans t\u00eb barabart\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb numrave t\u00eb kufizuar nga spektri i m\u00ebsip\u00ebrm.<\/p>\n

M\u00eb konkretisht, nga tre operator\u00ebt telefonike t\u00eb p\u00ebrzgjedhur n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb sondazh (AMC; Vodafone; Eagle), u intervistuan 900 veta. Pra kampioni ishte 900 pjes\u00ebmarr\u00ebs, nga af\u00ebrsisht 2,5 milion banor\u00eb t\u00eb cil\u00ebt p\u00ebrdorin telefoni celulare n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri. Pra propabiliteti i p\u00ebrzgjedhjes n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb barabart\u00eb i secilit banor \u00ebsht\u00eb 900\/2,5 mln= 0.00036. Si\u00e7 mund t\u00eb kuptohet, RDD \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb metod\u00eb mjaft efektive pasi n\u00eb koh\u00eb t\u00eb shkurt\u00ebr (Sondazhi u krye gjat\u00eb muajit Prill-Maj), mund t\u00eb arrihet teorikisht dhe si\u00e7 rezultoi edhe n\u00eb praktik\u00eb, br\u00ebnda kampionit pjes\u00ebmarr\u00ebs nga \u00e7do rreth apo cep i Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, ku dihet se gjithkush nga 2,5 milion p\u00ebrdorues telefonik\u00eb ka 0,00036 mund\u00ebsi shansi q\u00eb t\u00eb ishte p\u00ebrzgjedhur n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb sondazh (pra me 36 x 10-5<\/sup>\u00a0propabilitet t\u00eb ishte nj\u00ebri prej 900 individ\u00ebve t\u00eb parashikuar si kampion p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb sondazh).<\/p>\n

Intervistat u kryen nga nj\u00eb grup t\u00eb rinjsh t\u00eb trajnuar enkas p\u00ebr sondazhe, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet tabletave-telefonuan \u00e7do dit\u00eb nga ora 09\u201900-22\u201900 p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb muajit Prill-Maj, dhe ngarkonin t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat menj\u00ebher\u00eb n\u00eb website-in IziSurvey.com (Faqja: www.izisurvey.com<\/a>)<\/p>\n

*<\/p>\n

Replik\u00eb ndaj gazet\u00ebs \u201cTema\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb pik\u00eb, bien posht\u00eb akuzat p\u00ebr nd\u00ebrhyrje t\u00eb nj\u00ebanshme n\u00eb intervistimin dhe p\u00ebrzgjedhjen me q\u00ebllim t\u00eb elektoratit t\u00eb djatht\u00eb, me tendenc\u00ebn p\u00ebr t\u00eb rritur p\u00eblqimin e PD-s\u00eb dhe s\u00eb djatht\u00ebs si forc\u00eb politike pasi programi vet\u00eb e b\u00ebn t\u00eb pamundur k\u00ebt\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyrje n\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebna.<\/p>\n

Referojuni:\u00a0http:\/\/www.gazetatema.net\/web\/2014\/05\/30\/blendi-fevziu-ben-sondazh-per-te-vleresuar-performancen-e-bashes-dhe-grida-dumes\/<\/a><\/p>\n

**<\/p>\n

Shifrat dhe faktet<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Tani le t\u00eb kalojm\u00eb pak tek publikimi i t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave. Fillimisht, po i kujtoj publikut se q\u00ebllimi i sondazheve \u00ebsht\u00eb pik\u00ebrisht pasqyrimi i t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave n\u00eb nj\u00eb moment t\u00eb caktuar. N\u00eb var\u00ebsi t\u00eb rrethanave, kushteve dhe faktor\u00ebve t\u00eb ndrysh\u00ebm, t\u00eb intervistuar japin p\u00ebrgjigje t\u00eb ndryshme. N\u00eb fund, bukuria e sondazhit q\u00ebndron se \u00e7dokush mund t\u00eb interpretoj\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e tij n\u00eb baz\u00eb t\u00eb asaj q\u00eb paraqitet, duke dh\u00ebn\u00eb nj\u00eb opinion t\u00eb tijin. Megjithat\u00eb, dhe p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb ka limitet e saj. Dhe nj\u00eb limit \u00ebsht\u00eb kur dikush p\u00ebrpiqet ta nxjerr\u00eb si t\u00eb pavlefsh\u00ebm rezultatin e sondazhit si\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb tentuar n\u00eb rastin ton\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb aspak e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb q\u00eb PD-ka dal\u00eb jasht\u00eb parashikimeve dhe me nj\u00eb p\u00eblqyeshm\u00ebri t\u00eb madhe. \u201cTema\u201d- publikon shifra t\u00eb cilat m\u00eb kujtojn\u00eb shprehjen e t\u00eb madhit Giacomo Rossini kur pasi e d\u00ebgjon studenten e tij t\u00eb p\u00ebrformoj\u00eb nj\u00eb partitur\u00eb nga t\u00eb tijat, n\u00eb t\u00eb cil\u00ebn ajo devijoi duksh\u00ebm duke e modifikuar sipas preferenc\u00ebs s\u00eb saj, ai i thot\u00eb: \u201cShum\u00eb bukur, shk\u00eblqyesh\u00ebm e dashur! Pa m\u00eb thuaj pak tani, e kujt ishte kjo partitur\u00eb?\u201d<\/p>\n

P\u00ebr ta konkretizuar, \u201cTema\u201d shpalos: 51% e shqiptar\u00ebve vler\u00ebsojn\u00eb pun\u00ebn e Bash\u00ebs si t\u00eb mir\u00eb ose shum\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Pyetjes: Si mendoni ju se po e drejton Lul\u00ebzim Basha PD-n\u00eb?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Shum\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb<\/td>\n163<\/td>\n18.17%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
T\u00eb mir\u00eb<\/td>\n304<\/td>\n33.89%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mesatare<\/td>\n187<\/td>\n20.85%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Te keqe<\/td>\n81<\/td>\n9.03%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Shum\u00eb t\u00eb keqe<\/td>\n69<\/td>\n7.69%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nuk e di\/nuk p\u00ebrgjigjet<\/td>\n93<\/td>\n10.37%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Pra interpretimi ndryshon, kur afro 21% q\u00ebndron tek mesatarja, dhe ku 10, 37% nuk ka dashur t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjen \u00e7ka mund t\u00eb interpretohet edhe si shenj\u00eb proteste p\u00ebr kryetarin de jure<\/em> por jo de facto<\/em> t\u00eb PD-s\u00eb. Gjithashtu, nj\u00eb lider mund t\u00eb drejtoj\u00eb mir\u00eb, por nuk do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se korr sukses pasi nj\u00eb forc\u00eb politike ka shum\u00eb element\u00eb dhe drejtues t\u00eb tjer\u00eb n\u00eb gjirin e saj, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt mund t\u00eb mos jen\u00eb n\u00eb lart\u00ebsin\u00eb e kryetarit, ose dhe m\u00eb keq, t\u00eb punojn\u00eb n\u00eb linj\u00eb t\u00eb kund\u00ebrt dhe p\u00ebr\u00e7ar\u00ebse p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb mosdakort\u00ebsis\u00eb n\u00eb linj\u00ebn e partis\u00eb etj. etj.<\/p>\n

Nga ana tjet\u00ebr, pyetja tjet\u00ebr e cila vinte n\u00eb rradh\u00eb p\u00ebrpara pyetjes s\u00eb mip\u00ebrme kur i drejtohej t\u00eb intervistuarit: Si mendoni ju se po vepron PD n\u00eb opozit\u00eb?<\/em>– jep k\u00ebt\u00eb panoram\u00eb:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Shum\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb<\/td>\n112<\/td>\n12.49%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
T\u00eb mir\u00eb<\/td>\n222<\/td>\n24.45%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mesatare<\/td>\n235<\/td>\n26.20%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Te keqe<\/td>\n141<\/td>\n15.72%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Shum\u00eb t\u00eb keqe<\/td>\n114<\/td>\n12.71%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nuk e di\/nuk p\u00ebrgjigjet<\/td>\n73<\/td>\n8.14%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Pra, \u201cTema\u201d duhet t\u00eb publikoj\u00eb pak m\u00eb t\u00eb plot\u00eb informacionin q\u00eb merr p\u00ebrsip\u00ebr t\u00eb komentoj\u00eb pasi si\u00e7 lexuesi mund t\u00eb v\u00ebreje, interpretimi dhe p\u00ebrfundimi i aluduar ndryshon tep\u00ebr.<\/p>\n

28, 43% mendojn\u00eb se PD po vepron keq ose shum\u00eb keq n\u00eb opozit\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa n\u00ebse i shtojm\u00eb dhe 8, 14% q\u00eb nuk e din\u00eb ose nuk kan\u00eb dashur t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjen, shifra shkon n\u00eb 36, 57 %.<\/p>\n

Duke patur parasysh se kufijt\u00eb e gabimit p\u00ebr 900 t\u00eb intervistuarit jan\u00eb tek 3, 27 ose 3, 28, shifrat jan\u00eb qartazi t\u00eb pranueshme dhe br\u00ebnda normave akademike t\u00eb aplikueshm\u00ebris\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Pyetjes: Si mendoni ju po vepron Sali Berisha n\u00eb Kuvend?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Shum\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb<\/td>\n139<\/td>\n15.50%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
T\u00eb mir\u00eb<\/td>\n180<\/td>\n20.07%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mesatare<\/td>\n148<\/td>\n16.50%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Te keqe<\/td>\n151<\/td>\n16.53%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Shum\u00eb t\u00eb keqe<\/td>\n197<\/td>\n21.96%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nuk e di\/nuk p\u00ebrgjigjet<\/td>\n82<\/td>\n9.14%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Nj\u00eb sqarim dhe k\u00ebtu: 35, 57% e vler\u00ebsojn\u00eb pun\u00ebn e ish-Kryeministrit t\u00eb vendit Sali Berisha si t\u00eb mir\u00eb apo shum\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb, dhe jo vet\u00ebm |t\u00eb mir\u00eb| si\u00e7 \u201cTema\u201d p\u00ebrs\u00ebri publikon.<\/p>\n

Nd\u00ebrsa p\u00ebrsa i p\u00ebrket vler\u00ebsimit t\u00eb politikan\u00ebve t\u00eb PD-s\u00eb, k\u00ebtu s\u00ebrish \u201cTema\u201d i bie aq shkurt sa lexuesi i pa-informuar merr t\u00ebr\u00ebsisht nj\u00eb mesazh t\u00eb gabuar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Tabela 13. Notat nga 1 (m\u00eb e ul\u00ebta) deri tek 10 (m\u00eb e larta) p\u00ebr disa politikan\u00eb t\u00eb PD-s\u00eb<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nota\/Emri<\/td>\nRidvan Bode<\/td>\nMajlinda Bregu<\/td>\nMesila Doda<\/td>\nGrida Duma<\/td>\nEduart Halimi<\/td>\nAlben Imami<\/td>\nEdi Paloka<\/td>\nArben Ristani<\/td>\nJorida Tabaku<\/td>\nJozefina Topalli<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1<\/td>\n68<\/td>\n63<\/td>\n30<\/td>\n36<\/td>\n58<\/td>\n97<\/td>\n81<\/td>\n100<\/td>\n33<\/td>\n146<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\n41<\/td>\n45<\/td>\n29<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n20<\/td>\n45<\/td>\n39<\/td>\n34<\/td>\n14<\/td>\n41<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\n36<\/td>\n36<\/td>\n36<\/td>\n28<\/td>\n30<\/td>\n25<\/td>\n35<\/td>\n27<\/td>\n23<\/td>\n25<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\n56<\/td>\n53<\/td>\n40<\/td>\n31<\/td>\n48<\/td>\n69<\/td>\n50<\/td>\n54<\/td>\n27<\/td>\n49<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\n131<\/td>\n77<\/td>\n79<\/td>\n57<\/td>\n107<\/td>\n106<\/td>\n73<\/td>\n77<\/td>\n66<\/td>\n80<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>\n82<\/td>\n66<\/td>\n91<\/td>\n39<\/td>\n88<\/td>\n94<\/td>\n94<\/td>\n76<\/td>\n78<\/td>\n51<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>\n136<\/td>\n138<\/td>\n103<\/td>\n59<\/td>\n118<\/td>\n115<\/td>\n110<\/td>\n99<\/td>\n106<\/td>\n74<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>\n138<\/td>\n146<\/td>\n104<\/td>\n68<\/td>\n106<\/td>\n116<\/td>\n115<\/td>\n94<\/td>\n87<\/td>\n109<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/td>\n36<\/td>\n77<\/td>\n65<\/td>\n51<\/td>\n63<\/td>\n61<\/td>\n80<\/td>\n79<\/td>\n75<\/td>\n76<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10<\/td>\n58<\/td>\n112<\/td>\n95<\/td>\n118<\/td>\n60<\/td>\n80<\/td>\n114<\/td>\n97<\/td>\n90<\/td>\n165<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nuk e di\/nuk e njoh\/nuk p\u00ebrgjigjet<\/td>\n115<\/td>\n84<\/td>\n225<\/td>\n401<\/td>\n199<\/td>\n89<\/td>\n106<\/td>\n160<\/td>\n298<\/td>\n63<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total<\/td>\n897<\/td>\n897<\/td>\n897<\/td>\n897<\/td>\n897<\/td>\n897<\/td>\n897<\/td>\n897<\/td>\n897<\/td>\n897<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Grida Duma \u00ebsht\u00eb e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb q\u00eb ka marr\u00eb m\u00eb tep\u00ebr vler\u00ebsime t\u00eb larta, pasi vler\u00ebsimi b\u00ebhej nga nota 1-10, por n\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn koh\u00eb kryeson gjithashtu list\u00ebn e politikan\u00ebve t\u00eb PD-s\u00eb p\u00ebr mosnjohje nga publiku. P\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, po publikoj m\u00eb posht\u00eb tabel\u00ebn e plot\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrpiluar nga IBSK p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb sondazh:<\/p>\n

Pra n\u00ebse v\u00ebrejm\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb manekiste, pra bardh e zi, le t\u00eb krahasojm\u00eb vler\u00ebn minimale (nota m\u00eb e ul\u00ebt) me at\u00eb maksimale (nota m\u00eb e lart\u00eb):<\/p>\n

1- kryeson list\u00ebn ish-Kryetarja e Kuvendit Popullor, Jozefina Topalli me 146 vler\u00ebsime, e pasuar nga Arben Ristani me 100.<\/p>\n

10- kryeson list\u00ebn po Jozefina Topalli, me 165 vler\u00ebsime, e pasuar nga Grida Duma me 118.<\/p>\n

Mir\u00ebpo si\u00e7 kuptohet, elasticiteti n\u00eb vler\u00ebn absolute mesatare nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00ebsoj. Jozefina ka m\u00eb tep\u00ebr 10 por dhe m\u00eb tep\u00ebr 1, gjithashtu Grida vjen e dyta p\u00ebr nga 10, por me nj\u00eb panjofshm\u00ebri t\u00eb deklaruar\u00a0prej 401 vetash! N\u00ebse e pasqyrojm\u00eb n\u00eb %, nga 900 t\u00eb intervistuarit, 41, 3% nuk e njihnin ose nuk donin t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjeshin p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb person.<\/p>\n

Pra si\u00e7 mund t\u00eb shihet, \u201cTema\u201d s\u00ebrish nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e sakt\u00eb n\u00eb interpretimin e saj. Pra nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb Grida Duma e para p\u00ebr vler\u00ebsimin m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb.<\/p>\n

M\u00eb posht\u00eb po publikoj n\u00eb % vet\u00ebm 2 notat m\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrzgjedhura p\u00ebr politikan\u00ebt e PD-s\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb n\u00eb list\u00ebn e k\u00ebtij sondazhi, t\u00eb vler\u00ebsuar nga kampioni prej 900 veta. N\u00eb rastin kur % e panjofshm\u00ebris\u00eb hyn n\u00eb dy m\u00eb t\u00eb votuarat, kemi marr\u00eb not\u00ebn e tret\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb politikanit. Ja ku \u00ebsht\u00eb lista e notave dhe %:<\/p>\n

Ridvan Bode:<\/em><\/strong> 18,2 % nota 8; 15, 4% nota 5. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 >Nota Mesatare: 6,5<\/p>\n

Majlinda Bregu:<\/em><\/strong> 15,4 % nota 7; 14,7% nota 8. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0>Nota Mesatare: 7, 5<\/p>\n

Mesila Doda:<\/em><\/strong> 26, 6% nuk e njohin\/ nuk duan t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjen; 14% nota 7; 11,9% nota 10.<\/p>\n

>Nota Mesatare: 8,5 por kur n\u00eb 10 persona- gati 3 nuk e njohin\/ nuk duan t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjen.<\/p>\n

Grida Duma:<\/em><\/strong> 41, 3% nuk e njohin\/ nuk duan t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjen; 13,3 % nota 10; 7,7% nota 7.<\/p>\n

>Nota Mesatare: 8,5 por kur n\u00eb 10 persona- 4 nuk e njohin\/ nuk duan t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjen.<\/p>\n

Eduart Halimi:<\/em><\/strong> 19,6% nuk e njohin\/ nuk duan t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjen; 12,6 % nota 6; 11,9% nota 5.<\/p>\n

>Nota Mesatare: 5,5 por kur n\u00eb 10 persona- gati 2 nuk e njohin\/ nuk duan t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjen.<\/p>\n

Arben Imami:<\/em><\/strong> 13,3 % nota 5; 12,6% nota 8. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 >Nota Mesatare: 6,5<\/p>\n

Edi Paloka:<\/em><\/strong> 13, 3% nuk e njohin\/ nuk duan t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjen; 11, 9% nota 10; 11,2% nota 4.<\/p>\n

>Nota Mesatare: 7 por kur n\u00eb 10 persona- gati 1 nuk e njeh\/ nuk do t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjet.<\/p>\n

Arben Ristani:<\/em><\/strong> 18, 2% nuk e njohin\/ nuk duan t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjen; 11, 9% nota 9; 11,2% nota 10.<\/p>\n

>Nota Mesatare: 9,5 por kur n\u00eb 10 persona- gati 2 nuk e njohin\/ nuk duan t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjen.<\/p>\n

Jorida Tabaku:<\/em><\/strong> 31, 5% nuk e njohin\/ nuk duan t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjen; 11,2 % nota 10; 9,8% nota 9.<\/p>\n

>Nota Mesatare: 9,5 por kur n\u00eb 10 persona- gati 3 nuk e njohin\/ nuk duan t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjen.<\/p>\n

Jozefina Topalli:<\/em><\/strong> 19, 6% nota 10; 14,7 % nota 1. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 >Nota Mesatare: 5,5<\/p>\n

Si\u00e7 mund t\u00eb v\u00ebrejm\u00eb, p\u00ebr \u00e7do not\u00eb mesatare sakt\u00ebsia matet me rastin e shum\u00ebs s\u00eb % dy notave t\u00eb m\u00ebsip\u00ebrme m\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrzgjedhura p\u00ebr \u00e7do politikan, pra n\u00eb rastin e Bodes interpretimi \u00ebsht\u00eb si vijon:<\/p>\n

Me 33,6 % t\u00eb pjes\u00ebs m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb vler\u00ebsimit, Ridvan Bode i p\u00ebrket not\u00ebs mesatar 6, 5. (e k\u00ebshtu me rradh\u00eb).<\/p>\n

Megjithat\u00eb, p\u00ebrs\u00ebri duhet t\u00eb jemi t\u00eb kujdessh\u00ebm pasi n\u00eb rastet kur panjofshm\u00ebria \u00ebsht\u00eb nd\u00ebr m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdhat\u00eb, nota mesatare ka dal\u00eb si vler\u00eb absolute e not\u00ebs pasardh\u00ebse me t\u00eb dyt\u00ebn. P.sh.:<\/p>\n

Grida Duma \u00ebsht\u00eb vler\u00ebsuar me not\u00ebn mesatare 8,5 t\u00eb preferuar nga 21% e votuesve, por nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb n\u00eb 10 persona- 4 nuk e njohin. Ose ndryshe, duke hequr 41,3% panjofshm\u00ebri, Grida Duma \u00ebsht\u00eb vler\u00ebsuar af\u00ebrsisht me not\u00ebn 8,5 nga pjesa e mbetur e 59,7% e njofshm\u00ebris\u00eb (nga ku rrjedh q\u00eb n\u00eb 6 persona vet\u00ebm 2 e kan\u00eb vler\u00ebsuar Grid\u00ebn me not\u00ebn 10 ose 7).<\/p>\n

E k\u00ebshtu me rradhe dhe p\u00ebr politikan\u00ebt e tjer\u00eb. Edhe kjo metod\u00eb ka pasakt\u00ebsin\u00eb e saj n\u00eb analiz\u00eb n\u00ebse duam t\u00eb hym\u00eb n\u00eb analiz\u00eb t\u00eb thell\u00eb t\u00eb numrave dhe nxjerrjes s\u00eb mesatares aritmetike, por k\u00ebtu nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00ebllimi p\u00ebr t\u00eb hyr\u00eb n\u00eb detaje por thjesht p\u00ebr t\u00eb dh\u00ebn\u00eb nj\u00eb ilustrim t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm t\u00eb vler\u00ebsimit me not\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb nga sondazhi p\u00ebr k\u00ebta politikan\u00eb, ndryshe nga sa shprehet \u201cTema\u201d etj. media.<\/p>\n

***<\/p>\n

Analiz\u00eb<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Interpretimet mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb ndryshme, por publiku duhet t\u00eb marr\u00eb parasysh mbi t\u00eb gjitha vjet\u00ebrsin\u00eb e politikan\u00ebve t\u00eb m\u00ebsip\u00ebrm n\u00eb PD- si forc\u00eb politike, pasi njihet bot\u00ebrisht q\u00eb pushteti e konsumon ushtruesin e tij, dhe s\u00eb dyti n\u00ebse ai\/ajo ka okupuar ndonj\u00eb pozicion zyrtar m\u00eb par\u00eb n\u00eb kabinetin qeveritar, pra ka p\u00ebrfa\u00ebsuar ndonj\u00eb institucion shtet\u00ebror gjat\u00eb qeverisjes s\u00eb PD-s\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb kaluar\u00ebn apo jo.<\/p>\n

T\u00eb intervistuarit, dhe sidomos elektorati i djatht\u00eb i saj (i cili \u00ebsht\u00eb identifikuar si i till\u00eb n\u00eb baz\u00eb t\u00eb 2-pyetjeve t\u00eb fundit t\u00eb sondazhit ku i intervistuari pyetet s\u00eb p\u00ebr k\u00eb ka votuar n\u00eb 2013 dhe m\u00eb pas se p\u00ebr k\u00eb ka nd\u00ebrmend t\u00eb votoj\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen) ka votuar n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb: moshat e reja kan\u00eb vler\u00ebsuar m\u00eb lart\u00eb figurat e vjetra t\u00eb PD-s\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa moshat e pjekura (pra 30 e lart) kan\u00eb vler\u00ebsuar m\u00eb lart figurat e reja br\u00ebnda PD-s\u00eb e sidomos ata\/ato q\u00eb nuk kan\u00eb okupuar poste qeveritare m\u00eb par\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Gjithashtu, publiku duhet t\u00eb ket\u00eb parasysh nj\u00eb nga teorit\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb njohura e t\u00eb pranuar n\u00eb fush\u00ebn e sondazheve politike, q\u00eb thot\u00eb se gjithmon\u00eb n\u00eb rast rotacionesh politike, parti e sapoardhur n\u00eb pushtet \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb vulnerab\u00ebl dhe m\u00eb e c\u00ebnuar nga gjykimi dhe opinioni kritik i t\u00eb intervistuarve p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb padurimshm\u00ebris\u00eb, ose gj\u00ebndjes s\u00eb re t\u00eb krijuar nga qeveria e re n\u00eb lidhje me at\u00eb q\u00eb pritet e po kryhet. Shkaqet dhe arsyet jan\u00eb t\u00eb shumta, sidomos n\u00eb rastet kur ndodh nj\u00eb ndryshim politik me diferenc\u00eb t\u00eb thell\u00eb votash, si\u00e7 ndodhi n\u00eb 23 Qershor 2013 ku koalicioni i majt\u00eb d\u00ebrrmoi koalicionin e djatht\u00eb me nj\u00eb hendek t\u00eb krijuar prej mbi 900.000 mij\u00eb votash diferenc\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Dhe e fundit, por jo m\u00eb pak nga r\u00ebnd\u00ebsia, q\u00ebndron v\u00ebrtet nj\u00eb hije dyshimi mbi p\u00ebrmendjen s\u00eb emisionit \u201cOpinion\u201d q\u00eb n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb hyrjes s\u00eb telefonat\u00ebs nga intervistuesi. At\u00ebher\u00eb kjo v\u00ebrtet mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb ndikuar q\u00eb elektorati i majt\u00eb ta ket\u00eb \u201cfshehur\u201d vot\u00ebn e tij n\u00eb 2-pyetjet e fundit t\u00eb sondazhit: se p\u00ebr k\u00eb ka votuar n\u00eb 2013 dhe p\u00ebr k\u00eb ka nd\u00ebrmend t\u00eb votoj\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen. Kjo p\u00ebr arsye psikologjike t\u00eb alienimit t\u00eb \u201cOpinion\u201d me PD-n\u00eb. Kjo u diskutua n\u00eb debatin e 29 Majit ku n\u00eb panel u p\u00ebrmend si nj\u00eb nga shkaqet e mundshme q\u00eb mund t\u2019i ket\u00eb shkaktuar pik\u00eb t\u00eb ulura PS-s\u00eb si forc\u00eb politike br\u00ebnda k\u00ebtij sondazhi.<\/p>\n

Z. Fevziu nuk dha replik\u00eb n\u00eb lidhje me k\u00ebt\u00eb pik\u00eb kur u p\u00ebrmend n\u00eb debat nga z. Andi Bushati dhe z. Artan Hoxha, dhe mbetet t\u00ebr\u00ebsisht n\u00eb dor\u00ebn e tij p\u00ebr t\u2019i shuar ose furnizuar m\u00eb tej interpretimet lidhur me k\u00ebt\u00eb pik\u00eb ky\u00e7e t\u00eb sondazhit q\u00eb mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb ndikuar n\u00eb vot\u00ebbesimin e elektoratit t\u00eb majt\u00eb.<\/p>\n

-###-<\/p>\n

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